Predictions are a mug’s game. I know that. Anyone who claims to know exactly what the live music industry will look like in five years is selling something. But after three decades in this business, I’ve developed a feel for which trends have momentum and which are temporary noise. Here are five predictions I’m willing to put my name to.

1. AI will be embedded in every major event operation

This isn’t a prediction so much as an observation of what’s already underway. Within five years, AI-assisted tools for ticketing, rostering, marketing, crowd management, and audience analytics will be standard operating procedure for any event above pub-gig scale.

The operators who adopt early will have a significant competitive advantage during the transition period. The ones who hold out will eventually adopt because the efficiency gap becomes too large to ignore. This is the same trajectory we saw with digital ticketing replacing physical tickets — early resistance followed by universal adoption.

The key question isn’t whether AI will be embedded in live events, but whether it will improve the experience for audiences and artists, or just extract more revenue. I’m cautiously optimistic that the practical applications — better crowd safety, smarter scheduling, more accurate demand forecasting — will genuinely improve outcomes. But it requires operators who implement these tools thoughtfully rather than just chasing the highest possible yield.

2. The mid-tier venue will make a comeback

The last decade has seen a hollowing out of mid-tier venues — the 500-1,500 capacity rooms that bridge the gap between pubs and arenas. Many closed, were converted, or were knocked down for development. But I’m seeing signs of a reversal.

Several new mid-tier venues are in development or recently opened across Australian capital cities. Developers are starting to recognise that entertainment spaces add value to mixed-use precincts. And governments are more receptive to planning frameworks that protect or create live music infrastructure.

The demand is clearly there. Artists who’ve outgrown the pub circuit but aren’t yet selling out 3,000-cap rooms need places to play. Audiences who want a more intimate experience than an arena but a bigger night out than a pub show want places to go. The mid-tier venue fills both of those needs, and I think we’ll see meaningful growth in this space.

3. Regional touring infrastructure will improve significantly

Government investment in regional arts and entertainment infrastructure has been increasing, and I expect this trend to continue. New and upgraded performance spaces in regional centres, better touring support programs, and improved accommodation for visiting artists and crew are all in the pipeline.

The economic argument for regional touring support is strong: touring acts bring spending into regional economies, and the communities that develop strong live music scenes see benefits in tourism, hospitality, and liveability that far exceed the cost of the infrastructure investment.

The team at Team400 is also starting to produce tools that help with regional touring logistics — route optimisation, regional demand analysis, and coordination with regional venue networks — which will make regional touring more financially viable for mid-level artists.

4. Sustainability will become a genuine differentiator

In five years, I expect sustainability to move from a marketing exercise to a genuine competitive factor in the festival market. Audiences, particularly younger ones, are increasingly making decisions based on the environmental credentials of the events they attend.

The festivals that invest now in renewable energy, waste reduction, sustainable supply chains, and transparent reporting will be positioned to attract the most environmentally conscious audience segments. Those that continue with greenwashing will face increasing scrutiny.

Regulatory pressure will also increase. Government requirements around waste management, emissions reporting, and environmental impact are tightening, and events will need to comply or face restrictions.

5. The live music experience will diversify beyond traditional formats

The traditional format — stage at one end, audience at the other, barrier in between — will remain the default for most shows. But I expect to see significant growth in alternative formats: immersive events, multi-sensory experiences, events that combine music with food, art, technology, and community.

MONA FOMA and Dark Mofo showed what’s possible when you rethink the festival format. Smaller-scale operators are experimenting with listening rooms, rooftop events, warehouse parties, and hybrid physical-digital experiences. The audience appetite for novelty and uniqueness is growing, and the operators who serve that appetite will find enthusiastic markets.

The constant

Through all of these changes, one thing won’t change: the fundamental human desire to gather together and experience live music. The formats, the technology, the business models, and the infrastructure will evolve. But the feeling of being in a room with a great band, surrounded by people who love the same music you do — that’s timeless.

Whatever the next five years bring, that feeling is what keeps this industry worth fighting for.